Baseline blends the 8-week average, 12-week regression, and 26-week weighted regression. It is recommended because it balances recent velocity with trend stability.
Conservative uses median and longer-window regression to reduce sensitivity to one-week shocks.
Aggressive emphasizes recent endpoint and 6-week regression movement, so it reacts fastest to acceleration.
Experimental includes quadratic and level-dependent methods. These can be useful stress tests, but they are more assumption-heavy.
The forecast range is the envelope of active models: upper bound is the slowest path to the 243M floor, lower bound is the fastest. It is not a probability interval and does not include geopolitical, refinery, or policy changes after the latest EIA row.